Analysis of Academic Success and Parenting

The authors of the book Freakonomics analyzed statistical datasets to determine how various parenting methods and other factors are correlated with a child's academic success.  They feel most parenting advice is based more on opinion than data.  The Freakonomics authors looked at statistical correlation, which, as they note, is not the same as causality.  Ketchup is correlated with hamburgers, but ketchup doesn't cause hamburgers.

Factors correlated with academic success:

• Highly educated parents
• High socioeconomic status of parents
• Mother was age 30 or older when first child born
• Child did not have low birth weight
• Parents speak English at home
• Child was not adopted
• Parents involved in PTA
• Many books at home (But it doesn't matter if the books are ever read.)

Factors uncorrelated with academic success:

• Family is intact
• Parents recently moved to a better neighborhood
• Non-working mother
• Attended Head Start
• Parents take child to museums
• Spanking
• Child watches TV a lot
• Parents read to child regularly

The authors note as an overgeneralization that it's more what parents ARE, not what they DO, that is correlated with better academic performance.  Smart parents with good jobs who speak English and value education are more likely to raise well-educated children regardless of marital status, neighborhood, whether mom works, how much TV the kids watch, or how much the parents read to kids or take them to museums.

The Freakonomics authors also looked at the effect of charter schools.  They determined that children who apply to a charter school perform better academically, whether they get accepted to the school or not, than children who don't apply to a charter school.  It's apparently a reflection of the parents' educational values, rather than the specific school, that matters most.

Growth in Government Spending & Debt Fueled "Recovery"

In Why the Depression is Ongoing, we see charts showing the huge growth in government spending due to the Great Society welfare state programs. We also see that any economic "recovery" being claimed in the mainstream media news sources is due mostly to government spending with borrowed money.

It's The Social Programs, Not Military, That's Bankrupting Us

Gee, where do you think politicians started the US down the road to bankruptcy?

Five Decades of Federal Spending

The chart below shows federal spending in three component parts over the last five decades.

Government Burdens on Business

John Stossel read my statement about tax code complexity on his tax special this week on the Fox Business Channel. He had invited me to appear on the TV show, but I didn't want to travel to NYC. My statement is at the very beginning of the clip.

John Stossel Show - Inconvenient Taxes! (Part 3/5)
John Stossel on the Fox Business Channel

Tea Party Movement Member Demographics

Who are Tea Party members?

 

Tea Party protesters are extraordinary, not ordinary

 

74 percent are Republicans or independent voters leaning Republican;
16 percent are Democrats or independent voters leaning Democratic;
5 percent are solidly independent;
45 percent are men;
55 percent are women;
88 percent are white;
77 percent voted for Sen. John McCain in 2008;
15 percent voted for President Barack Obama

Did FDR Save Capitalism?

Fans of Franklin D. Rooselvelt claim that big government was needed during the Great Depression to save capitalism. That's analogous to the fire department setting your house ablaze, then claiming they saved half of it.

The economy of the late 1920s had its share of speculation, market bubbles, and other problems, as economies have had since the dawn of civilization. But let's see what the Hoover and FDR governments did about it:

They started a trade war with Smoot-Hawley (Hoover), raised the lowest income tax rate from 0.5% to 4%, raised the highest income tax rate from 25% to 63% (Hoover) then 79% (FDR), raised the corporate tax from 11% to 15%, added a 27% tax on undistributed profits, raised numerous excise taxes, raised the inheritance/estate tax from 20% to 70%, instituted a new 2% employer/employee payroll tax, and much, much more. The effect of the economy was crushing.

The Fed manipulated the money, causing deflation, then later imposed increased reserve requirements on banks leading to lower lending. FDR screwed up markets through his disastrous agricultural policies and subsidies, and his government-imposed industry cartels. FDR also gave unions way too much power and forced up wages, making unemployment worse. Other policies forced up prices, which is the opposite of what's needed in a downturn.

And don't forget the mindlessly idiotic pig slaughter, which has parallels to Cash for Clunkers. Destroy things to artificially create demand. Let's pay half of Americans to dig holes with spoons, and the other half to fill in the holes with spoons. Full employment! Zero productivity! Totally progressive!

All those GOVERNMENT actions are big downers for the economy. Thus the government came in to fix a major problem resulting from their idiotic attempts to fix a much smaller problem. Then we're supposed to believe we needed them. Hah! This is a classic case of a government manufactured crisis.

The Nobel Peace Prize

This years Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to a teleprompter.

The New American Dream

Any able-bodied American can get good quality food, shelter, healthcare, and pocket money, without ever working, all at taxpayer expense. 

What a country!

The Great Depression and Now

There's a recent WSJ article, Taxes, Depression, and Our Current Troubles, which has some interesting parallels between now and the 1930s.  Excerpts and my commentary:

In 1930-31, during the Hoover administration and in the midst of an economic collapse, there was a very slight increase in tax rates on personal income at both the lowest and highest brackets. The corporate tax rate was also slightly increased to 12% from 11%. But beginning in 1932 the lowest personal income tax rate was raised to 4% from less than one-half of 1% while the highest rate was raised to 63% from 25%. (That's not a misprint!) The corporate rate was raised to 13.75% from 12%. All sorts of Federal excise taxes too numerous to list were raised as well. The highest inheritance tax rate was also raised in 1932 to 45% from 20% and the gift tax was reinstituted with the highest rate set at 33.5%.

But FDR did even worse:

But the tax hikes didn't stop there. In 1934, during the Roosevelt administration, the highest estate tax rate was raised to 60% from 45% and raised again to 70% in 1935. The highest gift tax rate was raised to 45% in 1934 from 33.5% in 1933 and raised again to 52.5% in 1935. The highest corporate tax rate was raised to 15% in 1936 with a surtax on undistributed profits up to 27%. In 1936 the highest personal income tax rate was raised yet again to 79% from 63%—a stifling 216% increase in four years. Finally, in 1937 a 1% employer and a 1% employee tax was placed on all wages up to $3,000.

States added to the huge tax increases.  The economic effects had to be crushing. 

From elsewhere, I looked at the 1929 stock market crash.  The market dropped from 381 (Sept 3) to 198 (Nov 13). It then recovered to 294 (Apr 17).  Thus, what happened in 1929 proper is comparable to what we've just been through.  It was only later that Hoover got things really rolling (down to 41 by 1932).  That was after he raised taxes, including higher taxes on goods due to Smoot-Hawley.  Taxing is economic friction, exactly what you don't want during an economic downturn.

So if Hoover did so wrong, which I believe he did, why do my "progressive" friends think FDR was right to do the same thing?

Inalienable Rights

The Bill of Rights doesn't actually give individuals anything. Instead, it prohibits the government from infringing on inalienable rights.

Favorite Quotes

Since this is MY blog, I've decided to keep some of MY favorite quotes here. It's an ongoing project.

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. -- Winston Churchill

A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government. -- Thomas Jefferson

I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents. -- James Madison, Father of the Constitution

It would be thought a hard government that should tax its people one tenth part. -- Benjamin Franklin

I didn't say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth. -- Morpheus

Among the natural rights of the colonists are these: first, a right to life; secondly, to liberty; thirdly to property; together with the right to support and defend them in the best manner they can. -- Samuel Adams

Posterity, you will never know how much it has cost my generation to preserve your freedom. I hope you will make good use of it. -- John Quincy Adams

Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace--but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death! -- Patrick Henry

The moment the idea is admitted into society, that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence. -- John Adams

The taxpayer: That's someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service examination. -- Ronald Reagan

The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits. -- Albert Einstein

When the government fears the people there is liberty; when the people fear the government there is tyranny. -- Thomas Jefferson

The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground. -- Thomas Jefferson

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help little men by tearing down big men. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn. You cannot build character and courage by destroying men's initiative and independence. And you cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves. -- William J. H. Boetcker, but commonly misattributed to Abe Lincoln

They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. – Benjamin Franklin

No One Should…

No one should lose their freedom because someone else cannot afford health care, and no one should go broke paying other people's bills.  If you agree, please post this as your Facebook status for the rest of the day.

The Kennedys and Egalitarian Force

A good friend of mine expressed his view that the Kennedy family are “givers, not takers.”  That’s only partly true, I responded. The elected Kennedys are takers of my wages. Big time. Teddy is essentially a Euro-style socialist opposed to my freedom.

What I bothers me about Ted Kennedy et al is the forced altruism inherent in egalitarian ideology. The Kennedy family has established numerous helpful private sector charities, and I've contributed to several of those myself. Good job!

But the progress of civilization is measured in freedom and individual rights, not entitlements and income redistribution. The ideological right tends to force morality on people, while the secular left tends to force their own "religion" of egalitarianism through government confiscation of the fruits of people's labor.

As none of that social engineering force is authorized by the US Constitution, it's a form of theft and oppression. So left wing forced egalitarianism is no better than right wing quasi-theocratic authoritarianism. In both cases, Americans lose their liberties. I just want to be free.

Obama Sets Back Race Relations

President Obama inappropriately injected himself into a Cambridge, MA, incident involving the local police and Obama’s friend, Professor Henry Louis Gates.  Due to race-related comments by Obama and Gates, the situation was transformed from a routine police response to a reported break-in into a race issue.

Most reports I've seen say Professor Gates behaved badly, and he pursued the policeman as he was leaving the scene. Sgt. Crowley did not take kindly to that.  The black officer accompanying Crowley agreed with the arrest. It could have been handled quietly until Obama and Gates imagined a racist angle, which made the whole thing spiral out of control. This was an ordinary police response to a reported break-in until Gates, then Obama, imagined a racist angle.

There are some calling President Obama and Professor Gates “racists” for jumping to conclusions against a white cop.  I think "racialist" is a better way to describe their controversial attitude.  They have a tendency to frame many issues in terms of race, but they're not necessarily racial bigots.  They just imagine racism where there is none. Racism in America won’t end until racialists of all skin tones let it end.

As we now know, Sgt. Crowley is an expert police trainer in racial profiling. This is only a case of racism in the imaginations of Gates and Obama, and their inappropriate behavior can only delay our path to a post-racial society. Fortunately, Obama now recognizes his huge blunder and is taking an apologetic approach. What beer did they choose?

President Obama seems to forget that he is now president, not a private citizen, but that's a competence issue, not a racial one. Obama wasn't ready for the presidency. He had rather meager political experience, almost no practical professional background, and zero executive experience coming into the job. Unfortunately, the media and political powers ordained him as “The One,” and so now he is.

President Obama has been stumbling since even before the inauguration. My 13 year old daughter is even in disbelief over his clumsiness and apparently inability to speak without a teleprompter.  Well, President Clinton had a rough first year, too, then eventually got his bearings.  Maybe President Obama will, too.

Government Burden on Small Business

I own two small retail stores and a piece of commercial property. Here's what Big Brother requires me to file: annual IRS, CA, and MA personal and business income tax returns (total of 60-90 pages); annual corporate reports; annual renewal applications for common victualler, tobacco, lottery, liquor licenses; semi-annual business fixtures excise tax; quarterly IRS, CA, and MA estimated tax payments; quarterly US and MA wage reports and unemployment reports; monthly withholding (both US and MA), sales tax, tobacco tax.

There are 3 business entities, so some of the above must be filed multiple times. Then, my tax return is so complicated, the IRS conducts mail audits at least once a year - even though I use a CPA who specializes in small business.

Is this the way to run a productive economy? I can guaranty Americans would have a far higher standard of living if we simplified this absurd system of guilty-until-proven-innocent taxation. And all that is independent of the rate of taxation.